The analysis he gives is a good and robust one, I think. On the other hand, the news of our demise might be somewhat premature. The problem that I see that us futurists (armchair or otherwise) must deal with is the constant problem of historical events that flip the etch-a-sketch of zeitgeist upside down. That sentence may be too full of idioms, but maybe it can be clarified in example:

Last year, Friedman wrote “Hot Flat and Crowded,” where he discussed the impending conflict over consumerism coupled with limited resources and environmental problems. Not long after the ink was dry, gas went down by 50%, the global economy essentially collapsed, and the whole picture changed. I am still not sure the Friedman is wrong, but he didn’t see this coming.

It often isn’t the things we worry about that we have to fear, but those unexpected things that slap us across the face on some “annonymous Thursday afternoon.”

I don’t know if the trend in protestantism will continue, but God could, and perhaps should slap us across the face, and maybe induce a 19th century style revival that changes everything. For what it is worth. Sorry for the verbosity and circumlocution.